Inflation is the tax nobody votes for: it decides whether a salary buys more or less this year than last, and it is the single most important input into what Bank Al-Maghrib does with interest rates. This page is a living reference for Morocco's consumer price index as published by the HCP: where it stands, what is driving it, and why the gap between the headline number and core inflation matters. It is updated after each monthly HCP release.
The HCP, Morocco's official statistics agency, publishes a consumer price index (indice des prix a la consommation, or IPC) every month. It tracks a fixed basket of 546 articles and 1,391 product varieties bought by Moroccan households, with 2017 set as the base year (index = 100).
In the latest release, for July 2026, the headline index was down 0.6% year-on-year and down 1.0% on the month, Morocco's first outright annual deflation reading of 2026. But the more revealing figure sits underneath it: core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel, was -0.1% year-on-year, essentially unchanged from June. In other words, the headline move is almost entirely a food-price story, not a broad decline in underlying prices.
The split tells the story. In July, food prices were down 3.7% year-on-year while non-food prices were up 1.9%. The headline is a blend of the two, and food has now pulled it into negative territory even as non-food keeps drifting higher. On the month, the fall was led by vegetables (-7.6%), fish and seafood (-3.9%), fruits (-3.7%), meat (-1.2%), and on the non-food side, fuel prices (-4.9%).
Morocco's inflation in 2026 has been a food-and-fuel story, not a broad-based one. The table below tracks the headline and core year-on-year rates through the recent releases.
| Month | Headline (YoY) | Core (YoY) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | +0.9% | -0.6% | Monthly spike: vegetables +9.7%, fuels +10.7% month-on-month |
| May 2026 | +1.2% | -0.1% | Headline still elevated, but down 0.9% on the month as the spike fades |
| June 2026 | +0.3% | -0.1% | Headline drops sharply as food turns negative year-on-year |
| July 2026 | -0.6% | -0.1% | First outright annual deflation of 2026, led by a 7.6% monthly drop in vegetable prices and a 4.9% drop in fuel prices |
March 2026 was the peak of the pressure: a monthly jump of 1.2%, driven by fresh vegetables rising 9.7% and fuel prices climbing 10.7% in a single month. From May through July the monthly readings turned negative as those items reversed, and by July the year-on-year comparison itself flipped negative. Crucially, throughout this whole period core inflation stayed at or below zero. That is the sign of an inflation episode, now a deflation episode, that is about a few volatile categories rather than money's value shifting across the board.
The number that matters here is not the headline, it is the core. Headline CPI just went negative for the first time in 2026, down 0.6% year-on-year, and a reader could mistake that for a broader deflation signal. It is not: core inflation is -0.1% year-on-year, barely different from June's -0.1% and May's -0.1%, so the swing from +0.3% to -0.6% is almost entirely food falling 3.7% on the year. Morocco does not currently have an inflation or deflation problem, it has a volatile food-price cycle. That distinction is exactly why Bank Al-Maghrib has been able to hold its policy rate at 2.25%: a central bank reacts to the underlying trend, not to a cheap month for vegetables. It also means the real return on cash is unusually strong right now, with the policy rate at 2.25% against negative headline inflation, a saver's dirham is gaining purchasing power faster than the headline number alone would suggest.
The August 2026 HCP release, expected around the third week of September 2026, and whether the headline stays negative or the food-price reversal fades as quickly as it arrived. A drought-driven food shock or a fuel move would flip the headline back up, but only a sustained move in core away from zero would change the interest-rate picture.
Savers and households. Inflation is the difference between the interest a savings product pays and what your money is actually worth next year. With headline inflation at -0.6% and short-term rates around 2.25%, cash is earning a strongly positive real return, a genuine change from the 2022-2023 period when high inflation ate through savings. For households, the lived experience is more about the food shelf than the index: food prices falling 3.7% year-on-year is felt directly at the market, even as some non-food costs keep rising.
The central bank. Bank Al-Maghrib sets policy against underlying inflation, not the volatile headline. Core inflation hovering around zero is precisely what has let it hold the key rate steady rather than tighten, even as the headline swings from positive to negative. If you want to anticipate the next rate decision, watch core inflation on this page and the short end of the curve on the rates monitor, they move together.
Investors. Low, stable inflation supports both sides of a portfolio: it keeps the discount rate on equities contained and preserves the real value of bond coupons. It also shapes the currency. The dirham's basket peg means imported inflation, through oil and the euro-dollar mix, is a standing risk covered on the macro-risk page. When food and fuel are calm, that channel is quiet; when they spike, it is the first place pressure shows up.
This section grows over time rather than being overwritten, so the trajectory of Moroccan inflation stays visible. Newest first.
What is Morocco's current inflation rate?
According to the HCP, the consumer price index fell 0.6% year-on-year in July 2026, the most recent release - Morocco's first outright annual deflation reading of 2026. Core (underlying) inflation was -0.1% year-on-year over the same period.
Why is Moroccan food inflation negative while non-food is positive?
In July 2026 food prices were down 3.7% year-on-year while non-food prices were up 1.9%. Food is the volatile component: it spiked in early 2026 on vegetables and fuel, then fell back hard, whereas non-food prices drift more steadily.
How does inflation affect Moroccan interest rates?
Bank Al-Maghrib sets policy against underlying inflation. With core inflation hovering around zero through mid-2026, the central bank has been able to hold its key rate at 2.25% rather than tighten.